With the international markets facing uncertainty after Russia invaded Ukraine and Western nations retaliated with sanctions, Indian companies are putting their international fundraising plans on hold as they wait for the markets to recover. Bankers said apart from the geopolitical crisis, international rates are hardening in anticipation of interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve to control rising prices in the US. The Ukraine situation has implications for the market. In such a situation, international investors try to shift to safe haven assets by exiting from emerging markets.
'Money that came into mutual funds near the previous peaks -- the second half of 2017 and 2018 -- has in most cases experienced unflattering returns.' 'A large proportion of redemptions could be such inflows exiting when the market recovered sharply from July 2020 onwards.'
With economic activity still to reach pre-pandemic levels, the RBI may slow down the pace of rate hikes until next year to quell soaring inflation while supporting growth, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) says in its latest report. The Manila-based multilateral funding agency has raised the inflation forecast for the current fiscal year ending in March 2023 to 6.7 per cent from its earlier projection of 5.8 per cent. For the next fiscal year too, the forecast has been revised upwards to 5.8 per cent from 5 per cent earlier.
India's economic image is not affected due to Adani Group's recent decision to pull out Rs 20,000 crore FPO (follow-on public offers) amid allegations of financial wrongdoings, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Saturday.
India's residential market is expected to sustain demand momentum despite rise in mortgage and property rates as sales this year across the top 7 cities are likely to breach pre-pandemic level of 2.62 lakh units, industry players said. After braving four back-to-back disruptions in form of demonetisation, RERA, GST and COVID-19 in the last 6 years, industry experts feel the housing market is going through a lot of structural changes and is now at the start of a long-term upcycle. Homebuyers body FPCE gives credit to the Real Estate Regulatory Authority (RERA) under the Real Estate (Regulation & Development) Act, 2016 for this improved buying sentiment.
India's widening current account deficit (CAD), driven by the massive spike in commodity prices led by crude oil, is set to put pressure on the fragile recovery, warns a brokerage report that has revised upwards its CAD forecast to $45 billion or 1.4 per cent of GDP by March. According to a report by British brokerage Barclays, the worries arise from the fact that the trade deficit has been jumping continuously since July. From an average monthly trade deficit of $12 billion till June, it has jumped to $16.8 billion in July-October, with September showing the highest-ever trade deficit on record at $22.6 billion, the report said.
Market participants are impressed that Rajan has set the ball rolling on his first day at RBI with a series of announcements, raising expectations that more are in store.
Believe it or not, the regulator is even stretching its arm to identify stressed borrowers and gauge the 'distance to default' as a measure of a particular bank's fragility, reveals Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The recent run on the US-based Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and the subsequent seizure of its assets by the regulators may have sparked a global wave of risk aversion, particularly for start-ups. However, the Indian banking sector is unlikely to be a victim of any contagion effects, said analysts. he bank, which played a big role in financing start-ups and technology players, faced stress after incurring huge losses on its holdings of US bonds, following the most-aggressive monetary tightening cycle by the Federal Reserve in around four decades.
Many banks' profits will take a hit and a few of them could even end up being in the red because of treasury losses, triggered by a sudden spike in government bond yields in the rising interest rate cycle, notes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The Reserve Bank's rate-setting panel, Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), began its three-day deliberations on Wednesday amid expectations of a status quo on benchmark rate mainly on account of uncertainty over the impact of the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, the fears of firming inflation may also refrain the MPC from tinkering with the interest rate in its bi-monthly monetary policy outcome to be announced on Friday. The RBI had kept key interest rates unchanged at the last MPC meeting held in April.
What's different this time is that global financial stress -- which has its genesis in four policy choices made in recent years -- is juxtaposed with a more resilient real economy, observes Sajjid Z Chinoy, chief India economist at J P Morgan.
'For the next two years, we expect the bulk of earnings growth contribution from sectors like financials and energy, where the outlook remains positive, while the sectors which are linked to domestic consumption and are currently witnessing strains on margins have low salience for Nifty earnings.'
The ongoing consolidation in equities would improve return prospects during the second half of 2021, an American brokerage said on Tuesday. Leading indicators relating to fundamentals including growth, stability, government policy and RBI policy, and corporate earnings are "generally positive" about equity returns, analysts at Morgan Stanley said. It can be noted that since the start of the second wave of COVID-19 infections, which also coincided with inflation worries in the US, there has been an uneasiness within investors. From its levels on March 10, the markets are down by nearly 3 per cent despite the late surge over the last two trading sessions.
The United States, the United Nations and the European Union have welcomed the announcement by the militaries of India and Pakistan to strictly observe all agreements on ceasefire along the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir and other sectors, and hoped that it would lead to greater peace and stability in South Asia.
'We can go somewhere between 35 per cent and 40 per cent.'
CII suggested the policy measures required to ease the tight liquidity situation by cutting CRR by at least 50 basis points.
'Industrial countries are still struggling, with a few exceptions, to grow and the uncertainty about growth in the US as well the world is probably what impelled the Fed to stay on hold.'
Dalal Street investors became richer by more than Rs 16.36 lakh crore this year as the equity market scaled new highs despite persistent geopolitical uncertainties and inflation worries. Analysts attributed better macroeconomic fundamentals, the confidence of retail investors and foreign investors investing again in the domestic equities towards the latter half of 2022 as the key factors that led to the outperformance of the Indian market in comparison to many other stock markets worldwide. During the initial part of the year, markets were jolted by the Russia-Ukraine war.
'Earning expectations remain strong.'
Probably 35 bps. There could be even an encore in February 2023 to take the policy rate to 6.5% before the financial year ends, predicts Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Uddhav Thackeray dared PM Modi to fulfil Savarkar's dream of "akhand Bharat"
Traditionally, food prices have been seasonal in nature.
CPI inflation will remain below the target of 6 per cent set for January 2016.
The country's largest carmaker Maruti Suzuki India on Thursday launched a new version of its multi-purpose vehicle XL6 as it gears up to bring a slew of new products this fiscal and take the challenges of prevailing uncertainties head-on. The new XL6 is powered by a 1.5-litre petrol engine with a peak power of 75.8 kW. It is available in manual and automatic transmission options, priced between Rs 11.29 lakh and Rs 14.55 lakh (ex-showroom). Speaking at the launch, newly appointed Maruti Suzuki India managing director and CEO Hisashi Takeuchi said, "With the uncertainties prevailing today, the business realities are continuously evolving.
Global trends, WPI inflation data for April and the ongoing quarterly earnings of corporates would be the major driving factors for the stock markets, analysts said. Investors would also keep a tab on the movement of foreign institutional investors who are on a selling spree in the domestic equity market for the past many days. "Inflation concern and monetary tightening across the globe are key concerns for the equity markets. "Equity markets are under the strong grip of bears however they look extremely oversold and due for a pullback rally.
'These are interesting days for watchers of English cricket and central banking,' points out Amol Agrawal.
Toyota Kirloskar Motor (TKM) on Wednesday launched new version of its premium sedan Camry Hybrid in the country priced at Rs 41.7 lakh (ex-showroom). The sedan now comes with a new front bumper, grille and alloy wheels, a floating type bigger 9-inch infotainment system, among others. Further, the self-charging hybrid electric sedan is now available in a new exterior colour of Metal Stream Metallic in addition to the existing colours of Platinum White Pearl, Silver Metallic, Graphite Metallic, Red Mica, Attitude Black, and Burning Black.
The finance minister chided the central bank on Tuesday over its focus on fighting inflation, saying the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) also needed to abide by the government policy to promote economic growth.
'It is going to be a tough balance for the RBI to manage economic stability and ensure smooth government borrowing.'
High ground clearance, a wide cabin and tall stance all mean that the Carens glides over bad roads with ease and comfort and an engine performance that is adequate in terms of the power of this vehicle, says Pavan Lall.
In a drastic measure to stem any major disruption to the US economy as a result of the coronavirus outbreak, the Federal Reserve has cut its benchmark interest rate to almost zero and said it would buy USD700 billion in bonds. The covid-19 pandemic has sickened more than 156,000 people worldwide and left more than 5,800 dead. The death toll in the US stands at 68, while infections neared 3,700.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to take a "more dovish" stance in its upcoming monetary policy review on December 2 and may go in for a cut repo rate in February, according to a British brokerage house report.
Tata Motors on Monday launched the country's first CNG truck in the medium and heavy commercial (M&HCV) vehicle segment in the 28- and 19-tonne nodes. Most truck makers, including Tata Motors, currently offer CNG only in the small and light commercial vehicle segments. The company also launched a fleet of seven trucks in the intermediary and light commercial vehicle (I&LCV) segment, meant for varied applications.
The nomination would put Yellen on course to be the first woman to lead the institution.
The journey has been tough and unconventional, but it has been worthwhile as Kerala tribal Minnu Mani became the only girl from the state to play in the WPL.
'Avoid going overweight on gold. But maintain a 10 per cent allocation via sovereign gold bonds,' Bajaj Capital MD Sanjiv Bajaj tells Sarbajeet K Sen.
Significantly, about half of the CEOs who took part in the survey indicated that they propose to increase their investments in near future, 45 per cent cited no change in investment levels, while only 5 per cent expected a fall.
'Career paths are no longer linear as professionals look to build a more holistic career portfolio that is true to their professional and financial goals.'
The antiviral drug may cost around Rs 55,000 for an 11-dose course, or Rs 5,000 per injection -- much less than the price of imports from Bangladesh, reports Sohini Das.
